000 AXNT20 KNHC 222339 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER N COLOMBIA AND NW PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-78W. SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 03N10W TO 03N02W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 03N02W TO 07N20W TO 04N30W TO 02N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N AND E OF 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN N OF 25N WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY REMAINING E OF 95W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD TO N FL REACHING THE GULF TO NEAR 21N93W. THIS SUPPORTS LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS W OF 90W AND MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS OVER THE GULF E OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 23N97W TO 20N96W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN THEREFORE...CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM THE EPAC REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 19N81W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND EXTENDING ITS AXIS S ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 11N83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS E CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT THIS TIME WHILE SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES GENERATING SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 75W. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE S- CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS W OF THE ISLAND SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N72W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS BETWEEN 63W-70W. A BROAD 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 35N41W WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. S OF THIS HIGH...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM 28N60W TO 31N35W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE N FL AND GA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SE US. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA