000 AXNT20 KNHC 221130 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W- 77W. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FT ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO 05N30W TO 04N40W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 13W AND 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06W BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SERIES OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM FLOW ARE PROPAGATING SW TO NE FROM TX TO THE OHIO VALLEY...SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 27N BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD TO N FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W. THIS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SE WINDS OVER THE GULF E OF 90W...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS W OF 90W. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N90W TO 17N92W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE PRESENCE OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE S US WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 27N OVER THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS...SUPPORTING MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W AND 78W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING WHICH IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N36W TO 29N44W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 28N50W TO 28N59W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM NEAR 27N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W...INCLUDING THE SE BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE...A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N47W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE N FL AND GA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SE US. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO