000 AXNT20 KNHC 220538 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W- 76W. SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N19W TO 04N30W TO 02N40W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 12W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08W BETWEEN 29W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 83W AND 91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE W GULF MAINLY N OF 23N. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER THE SE US. THIS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE GULF E OF 93W. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW GULF IS RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N88W TO 18N91W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE PRESENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE N GULF WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 27N. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS...SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 73W AND 85W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W AND 78W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N38W TO 29N48W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N55W TO 29N69W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. AN UPPER TROUGH FROM NEAR 26N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO EASTERN CUBA SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN 64W AND 76W...INCLUDING THE SE BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE...A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N52W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE N FL AND GA AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SE US. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO