000 AXNT20 KNHC 211759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON DEC 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W- 78W. SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FT ARE EXPECTED. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WED. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N10W TO 06N18W TO 04N25W TO 04N43W TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... 10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST WIND OVER THE SE GULF. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW GULF W OF 90W AND N OF 24N. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 26N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT. THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE SE PACIFIC TO TAMPICO MEXICO TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER TEXAS TO MOVE E. ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND OVER THE NW GULF FROM S LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N76W. A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TRADEWIND SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W...AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N76W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-78W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER LOW OVER E CUBA SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THUS SIMILAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N46W TO 27N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE W ATLANTIC AT 27N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. A 1030 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N26W. A TROUGH IS E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 30N11W TO 25N13W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER E CUBA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 62W-78W. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA