000 AXNT20 KNHC 182349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI DEC 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W TO 23N87W TO 27N82W. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED GALE FORCE WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS UP TO 11 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE OF THE BASIN TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS EVENING. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N07W TO 04N12W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N12W TO 04N36W THEN RESUMES FROM 04N39W TO 02N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 08N36W TO 05N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 31W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF AS DETAILED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 22N87W TO 26N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONT AND TROUGH...WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STRAITS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 31N97W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN WITH CONVECTION. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHILE THE REST WILL ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PROXIMITY OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS W CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 20N AND W OF 84W. AN UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE EPAC WITH AXIS FROM 16N88W TO 22N81W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 80W-85W AND 63W- 73W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-72W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT ACROSS THE SE GULF TO APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...UP TO 11 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N70W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS LOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N81W TO 31N78W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 27N80W TO 30N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 75W. A BROAD 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 33N47W. S OF THIS HIGH...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N60W TO 23N50W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 32N26W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N28W TO 31N22W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN TO CONTINUE MOVING SE WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA