000 AXNT20 KNHC 171150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU DEC 17 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N45W 28N57W 28N65W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13 FEET TO 15 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO 42W. ...FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG 30N84W 26N88W 18N93.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 14 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 95W. ...FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...ON THE WEBSITES WWW.METEO.FR...OR WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM...FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA THAT IS CALLED IRVING. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 42 HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N02W 05N16W 04N28W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28W/29W FROM 07N SOUTHWARD. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N29W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 19W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 17W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A....FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...INTO MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA...TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE IS ON A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG 94W/95W FROM 18N TO 23N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N TO THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N88W 26N87W 30N84W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 90W WESTWARD. ...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N67W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO A 16N71W CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF A 63W/64W RIDGE FROM 09N TO 20N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 23N FROM 60W WESTWARD. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE BEING OBSERVED DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS IN SANTO DOMINGO...BEFORE STOPPING FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATION. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. IT WAS RAINING IN SANTIAGO ONE HOUR AGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL AT 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND HISPANIOLA WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE CYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL END UP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL AT 500 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD...AND BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL AT 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT ALSO A FEW SHORT-LIVED INVERTED TROUGHS TO CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N40W TO 25N36W. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 25N36W TO 18N42W AND 08N43W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 29N50W 27N63W AND 31N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N73W BEYOND 32N74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W 25N50W 23N70W 30N80W...AND FROM 09N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1031 MB MOROCCO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N05W TO 28N09W 26N16W 26N25W...TO 20N50W...AND TO 28N74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT