000
AXNT20 KNHC 161743
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED DEC 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO ON 18/0000
UTC. EXPECT A COLD FRONT 30N85W TO 26N88W TO 22N93W TO 18N94W.
THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N
AND WEST OF 95W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
                                   
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 04N08W TO
04N19W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N19W TO 01N21W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES W OF THE TROUGH FROM 03N22W TO 02N40W TO THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 00N48W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                             

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS AT 30N94W TO 27N96W TO N OF TAMPICO
MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. 20-25 KT N WINDS ARE W OF FRONT.
ELSEWHERE...THE TAIL END OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA
AT 31N81W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-
15 KT SE TO E WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS SUPPORTING THE COLD
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 84W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO BE WELL
N OF THE AREA. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS N OF VENEZUELA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N70W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S
TO VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
HISPANIOLA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 69W-73W. EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO BE OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 

...HISPANIOLA...  

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE OVER SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                          

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N65W TO SE
GEORGIA AT 31N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 28N66W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1018 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N52W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM
31N28W TO 26N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 35W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
TROUGH. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DIP
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N42W TO 26N60W TO 30N70W WITH
CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA