000 AXNT20 KNHC 161205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 42 HOURS. EXPECT A COLD FRONT FROM 30N85W TO 25N90W TO 19N94W. THE FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 95W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT DISTINCT AT THIS TIME. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 03N21W 02N25W 03N31W 04N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 6N20W 03N20W 01N22W ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 13W AND 45W...AND FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...TO THE FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COAST NEAR 29N83W...TO 28N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N86W TO 28N92W...AND INTO THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A....EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA AND IOWA...THROUGH MISSOURI INTO EASTERN TEXAS. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N60W TO 31N70W 31N79W 29N84W 28N90W... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN GUATEMALA INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL..AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING SITES...KXIH...KGLS...KMIS...KBVE...K1B7...KAXO...AND KGAO. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED ALSO IN GENERAL IN THE COASTAL PLAINS SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. IFR CONDITIONS AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF... KBQX...KHHV...KXPY...KVAF...KEMK...AND KGBK. MVFR AT KGUL...KHQI...KGHB...KEIR...AND KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... IFR...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LIFR IN BEAUMONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...LIFR IN PERRY AND BROOKSVILLE AND PUNTA GORDA IN FLORIDA. ...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE ACKLINS AND CROOKED ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS... THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 16N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 64W/65W WESTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 64W/65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 23N FROM 65W WESTWARD. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL AT 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY ONE AND BRING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE TOWARD PUERTO RICO DURING DAY TWO...BRINGING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL AT 500 MB SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL ENVELOPE THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL AT 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 600 NM TO 700 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT ALSO A FEW SHORT-LIVED INVERTED TROUGHS TO CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 22N31W 16N36W AND TO 06N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N21W TO 28N33W 25N40W AND 24N46W. CONTINUES FROM 31N31W TO 27N38W AND 24N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W 22N28W 15N41W 15N60W 32N60W...AND WITHIN 500 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 25N18W TO 11N38W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 28N09W TO 22N16W...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N31W...TO 19N45W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 19N45W TO A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N58W...TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND GREAT ABACO IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT