000 AXNT20 KNHC 160604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED DEC 16 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT DISTINCT AT THIS TIME. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 03N08W 04N17W 01N33W 03N41W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 01N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N77W TO FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W AND 27N86W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N86W TO 27N92W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A....EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A COLD FRONT IS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N81W 28N86W 27N91W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN GUATEMALA INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL..AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... IFR CONDITIONS AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBBF...KBQX... KGVX...KXIH...AND KGUL. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KBPT...KHHV...KVAF...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KEIR...KMDJ... KVOA...KVKY...KMIS...KXPY...AND KGAO. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... IFR...AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS KNBG...IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN CRESTVIEW AND IN DESTIN. ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA...LIFR...AT THE MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE...IFR AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT AND PUNTA GORDA. ...FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N74W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF GREAT INAGUA...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 64W/65W WESTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 64W/65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 85W. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI AT 16/0000 UTC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL AT 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY ONE AND BRING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE TOWARD PUERTO RICO DURING DAY TWO...BRINGING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL AT 500 MB SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL ENVELOPE THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL AT 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 600 NM TO 700 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT ALSO A FEW SHORT-LIVED INVERTED TROUGHS TO CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 24N27W 17N33W TO 09N42W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 31N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N31W TO 27N38W AND 24N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 23W AND 31W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...WITHIN 120 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N17W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 08N35W...AND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W 23N26W 16N40W 16N60W 32N60W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 27N09W TO 24N19W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N30W...TO 21N51W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 21N51W TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N63W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT