000 AXNT20 KNHC 151755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 04N09W TO 03N11W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N11W TO 01N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OF THE U.S. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL U.S...A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTH FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE SW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N87W THEN WESTWARD TO 25N93W AS A WARM FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 83W-88W. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF AS GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. THE CURRENTLY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BY WEDNESDAY WITH SE RETURN FLOW REMAINING AT MODERATE LEVELS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ON A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION NEAR 21N75W. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS OCCURRING FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 73W-79W IN THE FORM OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT W OF 77W WITHIN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY FEW FAIR WEATHER AND UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS E OF 77W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY INCREASING EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE STRONGEST TRADES AS USUAL WILL OCCUR WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION NEAR 21N75W THAT IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SW OF THE ISLAND FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 73W-79W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING NE BY WEDNESDAY. UNTIL WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALOFT AND RESULT IN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N79W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE SOUTHEAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING MOSTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 27N62W. FARTHER EAST...BROAD TROUGHING PRIMARILY E OF 55W SUPPORTS A STORM FORCE LOW CENTERED NEAR 44N35W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N26W TO 30N27W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY SW TO 20N40W TO 19N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 33W AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 33W. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE OF ENERGY IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 26N50W AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N35W TO 25N51W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 18N28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN