000 AXNT20 KNHC 142352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N22W 3N43W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 14W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE W GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 14/2100 UTC OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W ALONG 26N87W TO 23N92W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N95W THEN DISSIPATES TO 19N95W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N87W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHARP NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E GULF. A WEAK 1011 MB HIGH IS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT NEAR 28N93W WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE W GULF. THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO STATIONARY TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW GULF EARLY WED REACHING FROM S LOUISIANA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF OF MEXICO CLIPS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 21N65W COVERING THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. NESTLED BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER E COAST OF CUBA AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO CENTRAL PANAMA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N81W OVER CUBA TO NEAR 21N76W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. ...HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER LOW OVER E CUBA IS GIVING SW HAITI SCATTERED SHOWERS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING NE OVER THE ISLAND WED. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE HIGH THROUGH WED AND COULD CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 29N70W CUTTING OFF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER E CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N65W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N23W ALONG 24N33W TO 20N47W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N59W THEN DISSIPATES TO 24N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 34W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 23N22W AND A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 17N32W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NE FL/GA COASTS. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE NE FL/GA COASTS TONIGHT...THEN STALL LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS WARM FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW