000 AXNT20 KNHC 141748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON DEC 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 05N05W TO 04N10W THEN RESUMES NEAR A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N15W TO 08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N18W TO 02N26W TO 04N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 17W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 31W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WITH AXIS FROM OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NE TO OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. TO THE WEST...PRIMARILY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THE LOW AND TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W SW TO 25N91W TO 21N97W. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 92W. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NW GULF ANCHORED BY A 1011 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N92W. THE WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE NE THROUGH TUESDAY AS E-SE RETURN FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ON A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION NEAR 19N77W. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS OCCURRING FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 74W-82W IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT E OF A LINE FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO PANAMA AND FRESH TRADES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST TRADES AS USUAL WILL OCCUR WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION NEAR 19N77W THAT IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 74W-82W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKENING WHILE LIFTING NE BY WEDNESDAY. UNTIL WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALOFT AND RESULT IN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION THROUGH MID-WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION THAT SUPPORTS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING MOSTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 21N75W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N67W. FARTHER EAST...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W SW TO 21N40W TO 20N48W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 24N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 40W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY W OF 40W. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 18N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN