000
AXNT20 KNHC 140536
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON DEC 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
                                   
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC TO NEAR 08N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 04N34W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 00N-06N AND E OF 40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 
                                      
A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS
MEXICO AND THE GULF WATERS REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W
ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 22N98W TO 29N91W.
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND WITHIN
100 NM OF THE FRONT. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR E GULF FROM 25N82W TO 30N81W WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS SOUTHERLY FRESH
TO STRONG WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 23N W
OF 90W WHILE A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NE CUBA NEAR
21N75W AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W. THIS LOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 74W-82W.
SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE BASIN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT S
OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA... 
 
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NE CUBA IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THAT COULD REACH PORTIONS OF HAITI.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT S
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
                                          
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS NE
FLORIDA REACHING THE W ATLANTIC TO NEAR 29N77W. TO THE SE...AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE CUBA NEAR 21N75W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS BETWEEN 72W-77W. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. IT WAS ANALYZED
AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N72W TO 22N54W...THEN IT
TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 23N39W TO 31N30W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A
SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1018
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 18N35W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE W ATLANTIC. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA