000 AXNT20 KNHC 131109 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN DEC 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W TO 06N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N34W TO 00N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS MAINLY E OF 31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC TO THE NE ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. THIS RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW GULF ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 94W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE W ATLANTIC. A PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING ACROSS THE BASIN AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WITH THIS...A MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED APPROACH THE NW GULF WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE BASIN WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS EXTENDING ITS TROUGH S ACROSS E CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT S ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS...EXTENDING ITS TROUGH S ACROSS E CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE ISLAND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEREFORE...A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND EXTENDS TO 29N53W. S OF THIS RIDGE...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 26N BETWEEN 69W-76W. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N76W TO 23N76W. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IT BEGINS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N68W TO 24N58W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 24N45W TO 32N37W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 27N29W TO 31N22W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N27W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTS TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA