000 AXNT20 KNHC 121747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A PARTIALLY OCCLUDED 1001 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 32N45W SW TO 27N50W TO 26N59W. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA SURROUNDING THE LOW. THE LARGEST AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER OF THE SW SEMICIRCLE. THE OTHER AREA OF NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS IS IN THE VICINITY OF 30N45W AS A SMALL SWATH OF SW WINDS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 NHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N12W TO 06N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N18W TO 04N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 21W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW GULF N-NE TO OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA. THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE INFLUENCES THE GULF WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS E OF 90W AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG S-SE WINDS W OF 90W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAILING THEREAFTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED ON A RELATIVELY VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS LOCATED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA... HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-83W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS GENERALLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE TRADES EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST TRADES AS USUAL WILL OCCUR WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE ISLAND OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THAT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 20N...HOWEVER A FEW LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-77W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND POSITION ITSELF OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION BY MONDAY PLACING HISPANIOLA WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND RESULT IN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 74W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REFLECTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 23N74W TO 26N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 68W-75W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 34N44W THAT SUPPORTS A SPECIAL FEATURES GALE FORCE 1001 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N47W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIES FROM 32N45W SW TO 27N50W TO 26N59W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 23N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 56W-69W. OTHERWISE...EAST OF THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA...ANOTHER WEAKER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N27W TO 27N36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 27N BETWEEN 21W-38W. FINALLY...THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N40W THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN