000 AXNT20 KNHC 120527 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1000 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N53W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 30N53W TO 23N70W. STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA S OF THE LOW AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 52W- 56W...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 11-16 FT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA. THE ITCZ BEGINS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 10N16W TO 02N33W TO 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 00N-08N AND E OF 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE W GULF TO OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CLIPS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N79W THEN EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. A STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY AIRMASS COVERS THE GULF HENCE FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOR A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE BASIN AS A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA FROM 23N79W TO 16N81W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N79W TO 13N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS W HISPANIOLA AND THE SW ATLANTIC FROM 23N68W TO 18N73W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS THIS TROUGH ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS MAINLY N OF 18N BETWEEN 67W-75W. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS W HISPANIOLA AND THE SW ATLANTIC FROM 23N68W TO 18N73W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS THIS TROUGH AND ENHANCES CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE ISLAND. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E AND DEVELOP A LOW N OF THE ISLAND IN 24 HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE ISLAND AND CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 31N77W TO 25N78W. TO THE E OF THIS TROUGH...A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 65W-73W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 23N70W TO 26N60W TO 31N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT BETWEEN 23N-28N. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 25N49W AND ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 24N28W. N OF THIS RIDGE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA FROM 28N43W TO 31N31W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA