000 AXNT20 KNHC 112358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA. THE ITCZ BEGINS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 7N13W ALONG 5N18W 5N26W 3N32W 5N40W TO 5N45W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 23W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE W GULF TO OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF S TO SE SURFACE FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CLIPS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 22N81W THEN ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE GULF E OF 92W...THUS FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE W GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF SUN MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO 16N83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N74W ACROSS HAITI INTO THE W ATLC 20N73W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-78W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 78W-86W. NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N74W ACROSS HAITI ALONG 20N73W TO 24N68W. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ISLAND W OF 70W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OVER THE ISLAND STARTING SAT NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA NEAR 31N80W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1021 MB HIGH IS JUST NW OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N67W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N75W ALONG 26N79W OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N77W ALONG 29N78W 26N78W TO 24N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N68W INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N73W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM S OF 30N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 66W-76W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N54W ALONG 27N58W 25N65W TO 23N71W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/90 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A SECOND REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N32W ALONG 28N40W TO 31N46W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF THE ABOVE COLD FRONT WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 29N21W AND A SECOND 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N46W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW