000 AXNT20 KNHC 110547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 03N AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO SOUTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W... WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 05N20W TO 04N30W TO 00N50W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W...AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N83W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING MAINLY A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE IS ALREADY NOTED ACROSS THE NW GULF. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE NE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS KEEPING A RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF REGION. ON SATURDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF BETWEEN THE HIGH OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE RESULT COULD BE FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NW GULF BY SAT AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF ON SUN FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. ALOFT...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NW WINDS AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WHILE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA. THIS TROUGH ALOFT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TODAY AND ACROSS EASTERN CUBA ON SAT. AS A RESULT... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA THIS FRI...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXTENDING OVER HISPANIOLA MAINLY ON SAT. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PARTICULARLY E OF 65W. THE ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE ARRIVAL OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATE FRI THROUGH LIKELY SUN. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPED ON THU EAST OF THE BAHAMAS HAS MOVED QUICKLY TO THE NE AND CURRENTLY IS LOCATED JUST SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N63W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 26N48W IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 42W AND 52W WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS THE FIRST COLD FRONT. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE WESTERN ATLC. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OR INCREASE OVER THE BAHAMAS AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ON SAT...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF THE BAHAMAS LIKELY ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT AND WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WILL SUPPORT SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND REGIONAL WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR