000
AXNT20 KNHC 101106
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
                                    
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N14W TO
04N24W TO 05N35W TO 03N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
08N44W TO 01N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N46W TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 18W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 31N83W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N94W. 10-15
KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF 25N HAS ZONAL
FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUD. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LINGERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   
                                            
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W HAS 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND
PANAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W HAS 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF JAMAICA FROM 18N-20N
BETWEEN 75W-77W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING
IS NOTED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. FURTHER E...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. 

...HISPANIOLA...   
                                            
PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION W AND N OF THE
ISLAND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...  

A 1012 MB LOW IS E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N74W. PATCHES OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 62W-70W. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
31N55W TO 30N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A SMALL 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
27N51W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALSO OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N38W TO 28N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS FROM 30N20W TO 26N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF
28N E OF 18W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE
TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC. ALSO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N16W ENHANCING THE
SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W
ATLANTIC LOW TO MOVE TO 33N60W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE
S BAHAMAS NEAR 22N72W WITH CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA