000
AXNT20 KNHC 100554
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU DEC 10 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
                                    
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N14W TO
06N30W TO 04N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 08N42W TO
02N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 18W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N89W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF
27N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF 27N
HAS ZONAL FLOW WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUD. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   
                                            
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER W CUBA FROM 23N82W TO 20N84W
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W HAS 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN
THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS NOTED
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. FURTHER E...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. 

...HISPANIOLA...   
                                            
PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE ISLAND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION W AND N OF THE
ISLAND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...  

A 1013 MB LOW IS E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N74W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-
71W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
FROM 31N57W TO 29N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A SMALL 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
27N52W. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N39W TO 28N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS FROM 30N20W TO 26N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 28N E
OF 18W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC. ALSO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N16W ENHANCING THE
SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W
ATLANTIC LOW TO MOVE TO 32N64W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO THE
S BAHAMAS NEAR 23N71W WITH CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA