000 AXNT20 KNHC 081754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE DEC 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 05N04W TO 03N09W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N09W TO 04N17W TO 02N26W TO 04N35W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 04N36W TO 09N35W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO A BROAD BASE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N90W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS W- SW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N87W. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 25N E OF 84W...AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 84W. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT SURROUNDING AND TO THE WEST OF THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE RIDGING REMAINING THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. WHILE GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW GULF...ELSEWHERE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WERE NOTED ON A RECENT WINDSAT PASS AROUND 08/1238 UTC. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA WHICH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH THEN EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO THE NE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 15N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERALLY N OF 15N WEST OF A LINE FROM 20N78W TO 15N83W. FARTHER SE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ON MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE S OF 12N. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS ARE AS USUAL ANTICIPATED OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION PROVIDING A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT AT THIS TIME. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION EAST OF A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED WELL TO THE NORTH OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND IN THE VICINITY OF 40N70W. BOTH OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SUPPORT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N69W SW TO 28N77W AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N72W SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 70W-80W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE VICINITY OF 37N50W AND SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 35N52W THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N50W SW TO 29N53W TO 29N58W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TO BEYOND 32N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N49W AND A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N18W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN