000 AXNT20 KNHC 081125 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE DEC 08 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N12W TO 07N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N14W TO 03N20W TO 05N33W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 09N33W TO 01N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N36W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-10N BETWEEN 13W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N- 27N BETWEEN 80W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF THE FRONT. MODERATE NE SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS WEAK TROUGHING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW GULF. SLIGHT RIDGING WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SE GULF TO PERSIST WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N87W TO BELIZE AT 16N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 19N86W TO 15N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 80W-86W. FURTHER S... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 74W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND E HISPANIOLA...N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-70W. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO PANAMA. FURTHER E...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT 21N64W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOW OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA E OF 70W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N71W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 25N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-27N W OF 74W...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 70W-72W. SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLANTIC WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONTS. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N54W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 30N55W TO 29N60W TO 31N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N50W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 30N120W. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FOR THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY...THEN PROCEED E TO 31N66W WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT RETROGRADES N OF THE BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA