000 AXNT20 KNHC 071106 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON DEC 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03N00W TO 03N06W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N06W TO 03N20W TO 04N27W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 07N27W TO 02N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N- 09N BETWEEN 10W-27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 23N87W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS N OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH NE SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF FRONT ...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ WHERE WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 20-30 KT DUE TO A LOCALIZED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE FRONT TO PERSIST WITH CONVECTION...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS E TO THE ATLANTIC. CARIBBEAN SEA... PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND W CUBA N OF 21N BETWEEN 80W-85W DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N89W TO 16N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N- 19N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND E HISPANIOLA...N OF 16N BETWEEN 60W- 70W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N NICARAGUA... BELIZE...N GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 82W. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA WHILE STRONG TO FRESH TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE E OF 82W. MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N66W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SURFACE WINDS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOW OVER THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA E OF 70W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N61W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 29N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 25N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT...AND N OF 23N BETWEEN 74W-80W TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW TO 30N54W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N25W TO 26N30W TO 26N40W TO 28N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N57W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 22N18W. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... GRADUALLY MERGING WITH THIS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA