000 AXNT20 KNHC 070604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON DEC 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N00W TO 03N09W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N09W TO 03N27W TO 04N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 06N30W TO 02N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N33W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N- 09N BETWEEN 13W-28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 23N87W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 84W-87W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ALONG WITH FAIR WEATHER. A MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN N OF FRONT AS NOTED IN LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...EXCEPT ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ WHERE WINDS ARE INCREASING TO 20-30 KT DUE TO A LOCALIZED TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE FRONT TO PERSIST... WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS E TO THE ATLANTIC. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 17N88W TO 16N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 84W-88W. TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 82W. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. STRONG TO FRESH TRADEWINDS PREVAIL E OF 82W. MIDDLE TO UPPER- LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SW ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N66W. A SIMILAR SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH WINDS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY EASTERLY FLOW ENCOUNTERING OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N28W TO 27N40W TO 27N54W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 32N62W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 28N73W WHERE IT THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE BOUNDARIES W OF 60W...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES E OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N21W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUPPORTS A LAGGING SURFACE TROUGH. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE UPPER FEATURE N OF 15N. EXPECT THE FRONT TO LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO MAINLY MODERATE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...GRADUALLY MERGING WITH THIS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA