000 AXNT20 KNHC 061744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN DEC 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W...WITH SEAS FROM 10-13 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO 25-30 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N08W TO INTO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 06N25W TO 01N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE AXIS FROM 09N46W TO 05N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE EQUATOR TO 09N BETWEEN 14W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN...ANALYZED AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THEN BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 22N86W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES MAINLY S OF 24N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS AREA N OF 24N. A MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AS NOTED IN LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE W ATLANTIC. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 73W. AT THE SURFACE...THE PROXIMITY OF A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUES TO SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS BASIN. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO KEEPING HISPANIOLA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES IS INDUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN AND AN OVERALL DRYING TREND CONTINUES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 24N80W TO 1020 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N73W TO 29N71W. THE FRONT THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT FROM 29N71W TO 30N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM 30N63W TO 27N50W. THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N50W TO 31N35W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONTS. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N28W TO 16N28W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR E ATLANTIC MAINLY N OF 17N AND E OF 24W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA