000 AXNT20 KNHC 060557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN DEC 06 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 30N65W SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. NORTH OF THE FRONT...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND BAHAMAS...AND A RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT 1039 MB CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF 30N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 06/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY 06/0600 UTC. THESE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR 6 HOURS AND THEN DECREASE TO A RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 02N01W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N01W TO 02N09W INTO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 05N25W TO 02N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE AXIS FROM 05N40W TO 10N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 16W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 84W...AND S OF 24N BETWEEN 84W-88W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES EXTENDING AN AXIS SW TO EASTERN TEXAS THEN SOUTHWARD TO A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...HOWEVER LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE AS FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS PREVAIL E OF 90W AND MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE WINDS CONTINUE W OF 90W THIS EVENING. THIS OVERALL WIND REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANCHORED NEAR 13N83W EXTENDING N-NE TO BEYOND EASTERN CUBA NEAR 24N76W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W SOUTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N86W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 83W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO THE S-SE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO PANAMA COAST FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N68W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 15N BETWEEN 63W-72W. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF 82W. THE STRONGEST TRADES...TO NEAR GALE FORCE...ARE NOTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THIS EVENING. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N68W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN AND AN OVERALL DRYING TREND CONTINUES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLC AND CAROLINA COAST IN THE VICINITY OF 26N76W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N65W TO 29N73W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE WINDS PERSIST AS A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE MID-ATLC AND SE CONUS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A CENTRAL NORTH ATLC TROUGH AXIS ALONG 39W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N45W SW TO 29N52W THEN WESTWARD TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 29N65W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FRONT NEAR 30N49W TO 27N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE... SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N48W. FINALLY... ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N30W. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERS THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 16N-31N E OF 27W DUE TO DIFFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN