000 AXNT20 KNHC 041804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI DEC 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 05N09W TO 05N18W TO 05N29W TO 04N37W TO 01N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 06W-15W..AND N OF THE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 07N33W TO 07N36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS OF 04/1500 UTC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING FROM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO JUST N OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W...AND SW FROM THERE AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO INLAND THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. A CARIBBEAN SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 19N87W NE TO JUST W OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN SW FLOW IS BRINGING AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE CONFINED TO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE GULF S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ITS SE. MOST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLEARING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS PREVAIL TO NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHTER WINDS...IN MODERATE BREEZE RANGE...ACROSS THE NW GULF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AXIS ALONG THE TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO COAST THROUGH MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANCHORED NEAR 12N82W EXTENDING N-NE TO BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 25N76W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE LOW AT 19N87W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH NE TO NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA CONTINUES AS OF 04/1500 UTC CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 81W-88W. THIS AREA HAS EXPERIENCED PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N69W WITH A RELATED TROUGH EXTENDING SSW TO 15N71W TO 13N71W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NOTED E OF THE TROUGH FROM 11N-17N. WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE E OF THE TROUGH CHANGING LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND COMBINING WITH THE PREVAILING TRADES EXPECT THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TO LAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF 82W WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING BROAD GENTLE CYCLONIC FLOW. ...HISPANIOLA... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST N OF THE ISLAND NEAR 20N69W CONTINUES TO AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE N CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE ISLAND. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY SUN EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN WITH A DRYING TREND IN ITS WAKE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SW TO OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PREVAILING OVER THE CAROLINAS SW TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AS 04/1500 UTC THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM NEAR 32N63W SW TO A WEAK 1017 MB LOW AT 27N79W...THEN STRADDLES THE SE FLORIDA COAST AND SW TO JUST N OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A JET STREAM BRANCH STRETCHES FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NE TO ACROSS S FLORIDA...AND NE TO N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N65W. RIPPLES OF SHORTWAVE ALONG THE JET STREAM FLOWING NE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ARE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OBSERVED FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 71W-77W...AND ALSO S OF 32N W OF 77W TO JUST SE OF THE S FLORIDA COAST. SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS IS VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS N WILL BRING FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS OVER THE WATERS TO THE N OF THE FRONT INTO SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL REACH FROM NEAR 32N65W TO NEAR 28N73W BY SUN EVENING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N19W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE