000 AXNT20 KNHC 041154 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI DEC 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 02N AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 06N12W TO 04N20W TO 04N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N23W TO 05N31W TO 01N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 19W...AND FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 26W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS OF 04/0900 UTC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING FROM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 24N87W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N92W. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SE. MOST MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLEARING IS NOTICED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING. PRIMARILY FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS PREVAIL NW OF THE BOUNDARY WITH WINDS DECREASING TO MODERATE BREEZE LEVELS ACROSS THE NW GULF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AXIS ALONG THE TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO COAST THROUGH MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANCHORED NEAR 12N82W EXTENDING N-NE TO BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 25N76W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED AT 04/0900 UTC FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W SOUTHWARD INTO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N87W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 81W-87W. THIS AREA HAS EXPERIENCED PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N68W WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N-17N E OF 73W. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF 82W WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING BROAD GENTLE CYCLONIC FLOW. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 21N68W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD BY LATE SUNDAY AND WEAKEN E OF 68W AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN AND A DRYING TREND BEGINS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SW TO OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PREVAILING OVER THE CAROLINAS SW TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 04/0900 UTC THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N66W SW TO 29N73W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 24N W OF 73W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 73W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 42N19W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN