000 AXNT20 KNHC 040558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI DEC 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SW TO 20N92W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N92W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF IS GENERATING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS S OF 21N W OF 94W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE BY 04/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N12W TO 05N31W TO 01N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 11W...AND FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 26W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO AS OF 04/0300 UTC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING FROM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO A 1016 MB LOW ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 25N83W TO 22N90W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N92W. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF BETWEEN THE MID- LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SE. THE ONLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLEARING IS NOTICED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE NW GULF THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL 04/0600 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF...WITH PRIMARILY FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. WINDS DECREASE TO MODERATE BREEZE LEVELS ACROSS THE NW GULF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH AXIS ALONG THE TEXAS AND EASTERN MEXICO COAST THROUGH MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANCHORED NEAR 13N82W EXTENDING N-NE TO BEYOND CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 24N78W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED AT 04/0300 UTC FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N85W SOUTHWARD INTO A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N87W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 79W-87W. THIS AREA HAS HAD PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N70W WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG 73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 65W-73W. OTHERWISE... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF 82W WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING BROAD GENTLE CYCLONIC FLOW. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 21N70W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD BY LATE SUNDAY AND WEAKEN E OF 68W AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN AND A DRYING TREND BEGINS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SW TO OVER THE MID-ATLC REGION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PREVAILING OVER THE CAROLINAS SW TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS OF 04/0300 UTC THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N68W SW TO 28N74W THAT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 24N W OF 75W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 75W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE AZORES NEAR 39N29W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN