000 AXNT20 KNHC 031141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU DEC 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND SW TO 23N94W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N95W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS GENERATING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS S OF 21N W OF 94W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE BY 04/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 04N11W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N11W TO 04N16W TO 05N25W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 34W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NE CONUS WITH TROUGHING DIPPING SOUTHWEST OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION NEAR 29N83W SW TO 23N94W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW GULF WATERS IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS STRETCHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION SW TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 26N E OF 85W. OTHERWISE...WHILE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLIES ARE OCCURRING NW OF THE FRONT...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE BASIN BY FRIDAY WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES GALE FORCE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE PERSISTING THROUGH 04/0600 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W. GIVEN THE BROAD AREA OF LIFTING DYNAMICS IN PLACE... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 68W-75W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TO THE WEST...SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 17N86W TO 22N84W. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION IS ENHANCED DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND AREA OF MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF 82W WHERE MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER NW PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SW TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE APPROACHING FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N77W TO 27N80W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST TO A LINE FROM 24N77W TO 32N70W. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSTABLE UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE EAST- WEST ORIENTED AND TRANSITION STATIONARY FROM ALONG 29N/30N TO THE NW BAHAMAS AS STRONG TO NEAR GALE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERALLY N OF 27N W OF 67W. FARTHER SE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA THAT SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM 20N72W TO 24N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND AN AREA NORTH OF THE ISLAND FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 68W-72W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE FROM 32N24W SW TO 25N40W BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKENING TO 26N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 35W. OTHERWISE...RIDGING PREVAILS ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N39W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN