000 AXNT20 KNHC 022346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED DEC 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SW GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 07N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES FROM 07N18W TO 04N35W TO 03N51W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 38W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SW REACHING NORTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM 30N85W TO 20N97W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N88W TO 23N89W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION THEN STALLING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY END OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PERSISTS OVER HAITI CENTERED NEAR 19N73W WITH ITS TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NEAR THE COSTA RICA-NICARAGUA BORDER. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 67W-73W. AT THE SURFACE... A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EXTENDING FROM 21N85W TO 16N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND E OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN 82W-84W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC REACHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA ARE SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-80W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT WESTWARD. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS TO MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA AND NW CARIBBEAN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HAITI AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE TODAY INTO THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 38N42W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY BETWEEN 76W- 80W. TO THE SE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS EXTENDING FROM 22N65W TO 19N66W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 25 AND BETWEEN 30W-56W. THE BOUNDARY ENTERS AS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N30W TO 26N43W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THAT POINT TO 27N56W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE FOLLOWED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE WEEK ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND W ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA