000 AXNT20 KNHC 021143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED DEC 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO INVIGORATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS MATERIALIZING BY 03/0600 UTC FROM 21N TO 23N W OF 96W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 07N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N18W TO 04N30W TO 05N46W TO 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 43W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH TROUGHING DIPPING SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SW TO 27N95W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TAMPICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES ARE OCCURRING NW OF THE FRONT...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING AND GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE GULF BY THURSDAY WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND GALE FORCE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 03/0600 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PERSISTENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FOCUSED NEAR 19N74W. GIVEN THE LIFTING DYNAMICS IN PLACE AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 14N83W TO 21N84W...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 79W-83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 67W-75W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NE OF PUERTO RICO PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF 82W WHERE MOSTLY MODERATE TRADES ARE OCCURRING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGHING DRIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING AND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 25N63W SW TO 19N74W TO A BASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N82W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 19N66W TO 25N62W. WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND GENERALLY DUE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 23N BETWEEN 59W-70W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 40N34W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N32W TO 28N42W THEN STATIONARY TO 28N47W TO 26N51W TO 28N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN