000
AXNT20 KNHC 020548
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED DEC 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
A SECONDARY SURGE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO INVIGORATE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS
MATERIALIZING BY 03/0600 UTC S OF 21N W OF 96W AND FROM 22N TO
23N W OF 96W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
09N16W TO 06N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N20W TO 05N25W TO 06N35W TO 04N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                              
A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH TROUGHING DIPPING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
SW TO 26N94W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
TAMPICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLIES
ARE OCCURRING NW OF THE FRONT...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OF THE
GULF BY THURSDAY WITH STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS AND GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 03/0600 UTC ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW
GULF.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
A PERSISTENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FOCUSED NEAR 18N76W.
GIVEN THE LIFTING DYNAMICS IN PLACE AND THE PRESENCE OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 13N82W TO 20N79W...WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 14N-19N
BETWEEN 76W-82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM DIFFLUENCE EAST OF
THE TROUGH AXIS PRIMARILY BETWEEN 69W-75W...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED ACROSS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 17N66W TO 20N64W
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-21N
BETWEEN 60W-67W. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF 82W WHERE MOSTLY MODERATE
TRADES ARE OCCURRING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGHING
DRIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING AND
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR
19N74W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                             
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N70W SW TO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N81W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 22N75W TO 27N73W. WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND GENERALLY DUE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 24N
BETWEEN 62W-75W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
40N38W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N34W TO
28N46W TO 31N58W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
COLD FRONT NEAR 27N45W TO 29N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND
SURFACE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE
EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN