000 AXNT20 KNHC 012354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND CROSSES THE W AFRICA COAST NEAR 090N13W REACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 08N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS FROM THAT POINT AND EXTENDS TO 06N31W TO 03N46W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM 22N97W TO 28N94W THEN BECOMING A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 30N91W. S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 22N97W TO 19N95W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N78W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF THE FRONT WHERE A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS...A SURGE OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NW GULF...REACHING GALE FORCE STRENGTH BY EARLY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N75W TO 09N82W. WITH THIS...CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS E CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...THREE SURFACE TROUGHS WERE NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS LOCATED FROM 17N87W TO 16N85W. TO THE E...THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N82W TO 12N80W. TO THE E...THE THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N76W TO 11N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE FEATURES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 20N64W TO 17N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEPICTED IN SAN JUAN PR DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AFFECTING NOT ONLY THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT ALSO PORTIONS OF VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT BETWEEN 65W-78W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING W ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH THIS...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N73W TO 22N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THIS AXIS. TO THE E...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 29N64W TO 28N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N56W TO 31N37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN AFRICA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA