000 AXNT20 KNHC 302353 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 06N11W TO 06N26W TO 03N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-08N BETWEEN 20W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE EPAC. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 22N98W TO 30N93W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FRONT. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 23N87W TO 19N86W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS E OF THE FRONT MAINLY W OF 90W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL E OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NW GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE TX COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SE ACROSS TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE NW OF THE COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N77W. WITH THIS...A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 14N AND BETWEEN 68W-77W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED S OF HAITI FROM 16N75W TO 13N77W ACCOMPANYING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. TO THE E...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 17N59W TO 14N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS TROUGH AFFECTING A PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT BETWEEN 68W-78W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN INCLUDING CUBA...WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND HISPANIOLA. THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE MOVING W WITH CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF HAITI NEAR 19N77W. WITH THIS...A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS E OF THE LOW SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND PRIMARILY HAITI. FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. WEATHER STATIONS FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE HAVE REPORTED UP TO 4.70 INCHES (120 MM) OF RAIN SO FAR TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THERE ARE FLOOD ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER- LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N68W TO 24N71W. SCATTERED LIGHT OT MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH BETWEEN 60W-72W. TO THE NE...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N60W TO 31N50W. A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDING FROM 30N68W TO 31N58W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 42N12W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE W- CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA