000 AXNT20 KNHC 301756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 30 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 07N12W ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN COAST AND EXTENDS OVER THE ATLC TO 04N20W TO 02N30W TO 03N40W TO 04N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W...AND FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED LOW OVER THE S APPALACHIANS SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM NEAR 30N93W TO 25N95W TO 22N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG ARE WITHIN 30 NM SE OF THE FRONT AND BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE TX/LA COASTS. SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH W TO NW WINDS TO THE NW OF THE FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINE...DOWN THE EASTERN US COAST...AND SW OVER THE GULF TO NEAR 23N94W. MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OCCURRING AROUND THIS RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GULF AWAY FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT. LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N86W AND SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NW GULF. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE TX COAST WED MORNING AND WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SE ACROSS TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY WED EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NW OF THE COLD FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO 17N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST N OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W...SUPPORTING ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N75W TO 11N77W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 14N...INCLUDING HAITI AND EASTERN JAMAICA. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ABOUT TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH. GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN TODAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE TO THE SURFACE WIND FIELD NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGHS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE MAIN FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY N. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG AND WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM E OF 75W N OF 15N THROUGH TUESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW TO THE W OF HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 19N75W TO 11N77W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC SUPPORTS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NE FROM JUST N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AS THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ONGOING CONVECTION. THESE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN 75 NM OF PORT-AU-PRINCE...WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES FROM NEAR 21N70W TO AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF JAMAICA WHICH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL N ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT SKIRTS THE EDGE OF OUR AREA DISCUSSION ALONG 31N BETWEEN 58W AND 67W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N52W TO 29N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N59W TO 10N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N29W TO 25N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 21W AND 27W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES E OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR 30N70W AS THE TROUGH MOVES VERY LITTLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO