000 AXNT20 KNHC 291743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 08N13W ALONG THE WEST AFRICAN COAST AND EXTENDS OVER THE ATLC TO 06N20W TO 03N30W TO 03N40W TO 03N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 17N BETWEEN 17W AND 29W. SOME OF THIS NORTHERN CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF TO THE NE GULF WITH NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN...INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N93W TO 27N95W TO 24N98W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG EXTEND FROM WITHIN 30 NM SE OF THE FRONT TO THE TX COAST. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE US SUPPORTS MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN TACT...WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND FOG POSSIBLE FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE TEXAS COAST. A MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF WILL SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS EXTENDED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE SW CARIBBEAN IS BEGINNING TO CUT OFF WITH AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 20N77W. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N73W TO 10N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W...AND FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE SURFACE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF TROUGH AXIS. MAINLY MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH CONVECTION WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...HISPANIOLA... HISPANIOLA CURRENTLY SPLITS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED TO THE W OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N77W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THESE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT...THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR DEEPER CONVECTION...CURRENTLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...TO REDEVELOP OVER HISPANIOLA OR MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 20N77W. THIS PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO 25N70W TO 20N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...FROM THE E FL COAST TO NEAR 60W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE TO THE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE FL/GA COASTS. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N55W TO 09N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 11N. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE UPPER LOW. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC...SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO