000 AXNT20 KNHC 291159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 07N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N17W TO 02N32W 03N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 06N TO 16N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 46W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 17N100W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO BEYOND LOUISIANA. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 87W WESTWARD. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 87W EASTWARD. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ALSO FROM 93W EASTWARD. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N93W IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. THE FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD IN MEXICO...BEYOND 30N106W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LOW CLOUD CEILING/LIFR CONDITIONS...AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KGLS...KXIH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...AND AT KVBS THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COASTAL BORDER. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...AT KBVE WITH A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 22N98W IN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/ AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CROSSING HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 27N72W...TO A 20N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 16N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 63W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 29N70W...TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...ACROSS HAITI...TO 14N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 20N70W TO 25N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND BEYOND 32N61W. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N73W TO 06N77W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 05N80W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 07N73W 05N74W 01N77W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.15 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.02 IN BERMUDA. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE PRESENT TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH IS CUTTING ACROSS HAITI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN PUNTA CANA. RAIN WAS BEING REPORTED IN BOTH PLACES IN SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS SINCE 29/0000 UTC. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB...FOR 500 MB...AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AT EACH LEVEL FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD AND GRADUAL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 25N20W TO 16N30W 15N43W TO 15N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 26N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N30W AND 10N35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 21W AND 30W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT