000 AXNT20 KNHC 282341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 07N17W...WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 04N30W TO 03N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 22W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 30N94W TO 24N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 15-20 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT E TO SE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE E GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 86W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OFF THE TEXAS COAST WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS N OF VENEZUELA. THE TAIL END OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI NEAR 20N73W TO 15N73W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 64W-77W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO...AND JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 77W. THE W CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N69W TO 20N73W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-71W. A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 41N22W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 27N57W WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N50W TO 05N52W MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER E CUBA IS PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 24N29W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING A PLUME OF HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N-30N E OF 26W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA