000 AXNT20 KNHC 281152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 09N13W...CURVING TO 08N16W AND 05N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N18W TO 04N20W 03N30W 04N40W AND 03N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 07N13W 03N14W 03N17W 04N21W 04N28W 05N33W 06N39W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 48W/49W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 11N60W TO 14N60W TO 12N51W 17N32W...BEYOND 25N15W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD BEYOND LOUISIANA. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 85W WESTWARD. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 85W EASTWARD. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ALSO FROM 85W EASTWARD. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA TO BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AS EASTERLY WIND FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LOW CLOUD CEILING/MVFR CONDITIONS...AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGHB...KATP...KEIR...AND KVOA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W...TO JAMAICA AND 15N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE- SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 26N69W...TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 57W AND 65W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 57W AND 76W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...AND INLAND IN PARTS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N73W TO 05N77W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 04N80W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND IN VENEZUELA FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 71W/LAKE MARACAIBO AND 80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.15 IN GUADELOUPE...0.13 IN BERMUDA...0.02 IN HAVANA CUBA...AND 0.02 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE PRESENT TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N69W...TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...AND INLAND IN PARTS OF BELIZE...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS WITH ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB...FOR 500 MB...AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AT EACH LEVEL FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD AND GRADUAL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 24N20W TO 10N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO A 27N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N42W AND 13N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT