000 AXNT20 KNHC 280603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA...CURVING TO 05N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N18W TO 04N21W AND 04N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 05N11W 03N15W 04N21W 04N30W 06N34W...AND FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N45W TO 09N48W AND 04N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB ALONG 48W FROM 05N TO 13N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 11N60W TO 14N60W TO 12N51W 17N32W...BEYOND 25N15W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD BEYOND LOUISIANA. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 85W WESTWARD. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 85W EASTWARD. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 85W/86W EASTWARD. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM GUATEMALA TO BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AS EASTERLY WIND FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LOW CLOUD CEILING/MVFR CONDITIONS...AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGHB...KATP...KEIR...AND KVOA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 6 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS EVENT IS FORECAST TO LAST FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W...TO JAMAICA AND 15N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE- SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 26N68W...TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 57W AND 68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 57W AND 76W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N74W TO 06N77W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 06N80W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W AT THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.15 IN GUADELOUPE...0.13 IN BERMUDA...0.02 IN HAVANA CUBA...AND 0.02 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE PRESENT TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N68W...TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE PART OF THE 28/0000 UTC OBSERVATION. RAINSHOWERS WERE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB...FOR 500 MB...AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD AND GRADUAL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 24N20W TO 10N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO A 27N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N42W AND 13N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 25W AND 33W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT