000
AXNT20 KNHC 270605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 07N18W 04N20W 03N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 03N22W TO 04N37W AND 04N44W TO 02N50W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 10N AND 17W...AND FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 37W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 15N
FROM 40W EASTWARD...FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W...AND
FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM
12N64W TO 14N60W TO 16N50W 18N30W...BEYOND 21N16W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 89W WESTWARD.

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 89W EASTWARD. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE
30N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 89W EASTWARD.

SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB COVERS THE
AREA FROM 85W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST FROM 24N97W TO
19N95W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LINE 25N97W 22N92W 19N91W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LOW CLOUD CEILING/MVFR CONDITIONS...AT THE
FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KGLS...KATP...KEIR...KVOA...AND KMIS.

...FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N72W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N77W...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N52W 24N58W 18N60W...TO TRINIDAD. LARGE-SCALE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB CUTS RIGHT
ACROSS THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 70W WESTWARD. THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES EASTERLY IN CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND SOME OF IT BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO
26N64W AND 21N66W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM 21N66W...ACROSS
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
HAITI...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...TO 17N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND TO 16N84W NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 31N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 58W AND
62W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 20N
TO 31N BETWEEN 54W AND 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM 17N
TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND
06N80W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. 

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.17 IN
CURACAO...0.16 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.06 IN BERMUDA.
 
...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AT THE PRESENT TIME. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM 21N66W...
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF HAITI...TO EASTERN JAMAICA...TO 17N80W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO 16N84W NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
IS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE
CURRENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

BROAD AND GRADUAL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FROM 600 MB TO
800 MB COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM 26N20W 15N30W 06N42W 04N51W...AND FROM 64W EASTWARD. 

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO A 27N26W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N29W 19N35W AND 13N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
MT