000 AXNT20 KNHC 262348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU NOV 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W TO 20N70W IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N WEST OF THE FRONT TO 70W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 NHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N17W TO 04N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N21W TO 03N30W TO 06N42W TO 04N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 15W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 20W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... E-SE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS OVER THE E GULF WITH 20-30 KT WINDS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WITH 10-20 KT. SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 23N97W TO 18N95W. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 21N95W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 87W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RETURN FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH WINDS OVER THE E GULF DECREASING SLIGHTLY. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF TO INCLUDE THE TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA AT 20N69W TO JAMAICA AT 18N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE TO INCLUDE THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN PANAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST NEAR THE SHEAR LINE AND FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INCREASE. ...HISPANIOLA... A SHEAR LINE TRAVERSES THE ISLAND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N60W TO 23N65W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 20N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 21N BETWEEN 57W-66W...AND S OF 21N BETWEEN 66W-75W. A GALE IS W OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. SEE ABOVE. A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N28W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 25N40W WITH FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 68W-76W TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW CENTER IS ALSO ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE FRONT TO RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA