000 AXNT20 KNHC 261156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE CURRENT FORECAST CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N59W TO 24N65W TO 20N73W. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 18 FEET IN NORTHEAST SWELL TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 07N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N16W TO 06N21W 06N25W...TO 04N34W AND 03N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 10N AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W...FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W... AND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 66W IN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD TO AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS CURVING AWAY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HURRICANE SANDRA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS RELATED TO THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 21N92W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO 16N93W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO...BETWEEN ITS BORDER WITH GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM NORTHERN NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 83W AND 98W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST... ALONG THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF COAST...SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N91W...INTO MEXICO NEAR 17N91W...TO GUATEMALA NEAR 15N90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBBF...KGLS...KEMK...KGHB...KVOA...KMIS... AND KBVE. ...FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 13N78W IN THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N55W 28N58W 27N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N62W 23N65W AND 20N72W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM 20N72W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF JAMAICA...TO 17N83W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N63W 26N68W 24N75W. THIS TROUGH REPRESENTS A SECOND SURGE OF ENERGY INTO THE ALREADY-EXISTING LONGER WAVE TROUGH THAT IS PRESENT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 26/0200 UTC WERE SHOWING WIND SPEEDS TO MINIMAL GALE-FORCE OR NEAR GALE-FORCE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH...AND COMPARATIVELY- SLOWER WIND SPEEDS OF 15 KNOTS OR MORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N NORTHWARD...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 29N56W TO 25N57W TO 24N59W TO 21N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W AND 77W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE... IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W WESTWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 09N61W 07N67W IN VENEZUELA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 08N78W IN EASTERN PANAMA...BEYOND 08N82W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 83W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.23 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE PRESENT TIME. HISPANIOLA IS IN AN AREA OF A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH...INCLUDING THE PRESENCE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND A SHEAR LINE...FROM NORTHWESTERN HAITI TO NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA AND BEYOND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 64W AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 80W. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 5000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA... IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH/ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH POSITION IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 74W FOR DAY ONE. THE TROUGH POSITION WILL STAY THE SAME FOR DAY TWO. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH FOR 2 DAYS...GIVING IT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N73W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO. THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FOR DAY TWO...FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY DURING DAY TWO...AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM 29N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 21N77W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 16N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 18N TO 24N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 43W AND 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N18W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 27N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N31W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT