000 AXNT20 KNHC 260601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE CURRENT FORECAST CONSISTS OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N59W TO 25N73W. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET IN NORTHEAST SWELL TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 73W. EXPECT GALE- FORCE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 06N20W 05N25W...TO 08N40W...TO THE COAST OF SURINAME NEAR 06N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 09N AND 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 66W IN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD TO AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS RELATED TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS CURVING AWAY FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HURRICANE SANDRA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS RELATED TO THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N90W IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO 15N93W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO...BETWEEN ITS BORDER WITH GUATEMALA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM NORTHERN NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 83W AND 98W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO 28N93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 24N96W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N99W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N92W TO 19N91W AND 21N91W. THIS POSITION IS JUST INLAND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 88W AND 95W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KGHB...KMDJ...KBVE...KDLP...AND KGAO. ...FROM THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N72W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 16N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N70W AND 25N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N56W 26N59W 21N64W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N NORTHWARD...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 29N56W TO 25N57W TO 24N59W TO 21N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N63W 22N69W...AND 28N66W 26N69W 25N72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W AND 80W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 83W AND 88W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 62W AND 83W. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W WESTWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 09N61W 06N69W IN VENEZUELA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 08N78W IN EASTERN PANAMA...BEYOND 08N82W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.23 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE PRESENT TIME. HISPANIOLA IS IN AN AREA OF A BROAD SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH...FROM 22N65W TO HISPANIOLA...TO 16N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 10N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS SPAN THE AREA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...THE OBSERVATION FOR 26/0200 UTC SHOWED DRIZZLE AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE OBSERVATION FOR BARAHONA AT 26/0000 UTC SHOWED FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER AND MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW CURRENTLY IS MOVING THROUGH/ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH POSITION IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 74W FOR DAY ONE. THE TROUGH POSITION WILL STAY THE SAME FOR DAY TWO. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH FOR 2 DAYS...GIVING IT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N73W TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO. THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FOR DAY TWO...FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL BE SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY DURING DAY TWO...AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM 29N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 21N77W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 16N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 18N TO 24N...AS SEEN IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N15W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 28N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N24W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT