000 AXNT20 KNHC 251155 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N58W TO 20N70W. EXPECT NORTHEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W...INCLUDING SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 17 FEET IN NE SWELL. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 06N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N13W TO 04N20W 04N30W AND 04N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 29N AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 05N11W 04N23W 05N32W 07N40W 08N48W 08N59W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 66W IN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD TO AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM HURRICANE SANDRA THAT IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PRESENT NOW. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 13N IN NICARAGUA TO 23N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MEXICO. NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM GEORGIA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO 28N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...AND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES AND/OR COASTAL SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KHQI...KMDJ...KIKT...KMIS...AND KBVE. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N64W...TO 19N62W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W...TO 25N65W... TO 22N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 19N80W 18N86W...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA CURVING TO 18N86W AT THE COAST OF HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 28N60W 26N60W 23N62W 22N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 64W. ISOLATED MODERATE OFF THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 18N69W TO 16N75W 13N82W TO 12N84W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 18N72W 14N83W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. THIS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS PART OF THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE/ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 08N61W 05N68W IN VENEZUELA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 09N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA ALONG 76W/77W AND 83W ALONG THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN BERMUDA. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE PRESENT TIME. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH THE FRONT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS...IT WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REST OF OF DAY ONE. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA TO JAMAICA. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SLIGHTLY DURING DAY TWO...AND BE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD SLIGHTLY DURING DAY TWO...BEING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 12HOURS OF DAY ONE. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO A POSITION THAT IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AFTER 12 HOURS OR SO. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY TWO WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N43W TO 28N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 11N TO 18N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 17N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT