000 AXNT20 KNHC 242321 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W AFRICA COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 04N27W TO 05N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 22W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER N CAROLINA NEAR 36N82W. WITH THIS...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN. THE BOUNDARY EXTENDS OVER WESTERN CUBA AS A COLD FRONT THEN ENTERS THE N CARIBBEAN WATERS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N78W TO 19N87W TO 16N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE S...THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS PANAMA AND THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 10N BETWEEN 77W-82W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT WHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN TO THE S OF THE FRONT. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES PREVAIL E OF 70W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTS TO CONTINUE SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS HAITI TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N61W TO 20N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 22N BETWEEN 60W-67W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WITHIN 250 NM NW OF THE COLD FRONT. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N54W TO 27N57W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 31N42W TO 28N48W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 43N25W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 250 NM OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA