000
AXNT20 KNHC 241759
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST
AFRICA COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 04N25W TO 06N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                              

SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER N
CAROLINA DOMINATES THE GULF BASIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING DEEP
CONVECTION TODAY. PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH COOLER AIR OVERRUNNING WARMER WATERS IS OCCURRING
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NE. GENERALLY SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL VEERING
OF THE SURFACE WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...  

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO E CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO 20N85W TO
THE BELIZE COAST NEAR 18N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN TO THE S OF
THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
PANAMA COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.  
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                             

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NW WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS NW
HAITI TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA ON
WEDNESDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N63W TO 25N68W TO E CUBA
NEAR 21N76W. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE WITHIN 250 NM NW
OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170
NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 70W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N55W TO 19N58W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 170 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N41W TO 27N48W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1039 MB SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC WITH GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE TRADE WINDS. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO