000 AXNT20 KNHC 231732 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO 06N22W...WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 05N30W TO 04N40W TO 06N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N E OF 32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 220 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 23N81W TO 22N88W TO THE SW GULF NEAR 19N92W. MAINLY FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. DRY STABLE AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE S US IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF BASIN TODAY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE THE GULF BASIN THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE N COAST OF CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE SW GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT. THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH OVER S PANAMA SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE PANAMA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS N OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN....EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SW OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS MOISTURE MAY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N70W TO 25N75W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 23N80W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM S OF THE FRONT W OF 75W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. FARTHER EAST... A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N40W TO 26N49W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 20N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT FROM 21N TO 27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SE WITH CONVECTION LIKELY WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO