000 AXNT20 KNHC 230551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA SW TO THE SW GULF. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ESTABLISHED AS RIDGING SETTLES IN ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS GENERALLY S OF 22N W OF 95W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 23/1200 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SOUTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N73W SE TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS PRESENTLY N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 73W. THE GALE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 23/1200 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 05N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N23W TO 03N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 13W- 48W...AND FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 48W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA AT 27N80W TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 23N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18N94W. A GALE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF FRONT. THE LIGHTEST WINDS ARE OVER THE FAR NW GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N. TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY IN THE 40'S ALONG THE NORTH GULF STATES WHILE SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS IN THE 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA ...FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 80W-83W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 60W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NW AND YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE FAR SW AND COSTA RICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEREAFTER. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N73W SE TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 72W-76W. A GALE IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO 24N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N23W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S TO 26N36W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING THE CONVECTION NE OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 13N AND E OF 38W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E...WHILE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY...WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA